Chrome begins to shine. Google's Chromebook is the one star in a shrinking PC market. And it highlights major shifts ahead.

PCMAG STORY:
Chromebook Sales Growth Bucks PC Market's Downward Trend >>

MAJOR TRENDS: Cloud, HTML5, low-cost, commoditization, business-model changes

Back in February, I wrote about the next potential screen of death for Microsoft: Google's Chromebook. ("Is MS about to be Wanged?" Feb 25, 2013). At a price of $249, the Samsung-made Chromebook is an extremely capable, super sleek, cloud-centric laptop. It's solid and secure, low-maintenance and high-value. Set it and forget it. But now it's getting tough to ignore.

According to research firm NPD, Chromebooks dominated the low-cost segment of the U.S. laptop market during the half of 2013 with as much as 25% share. And according to Gartner, Chromebooks accounted for almost 5% of all U.S. laptop sales, up from around 1% — 2% in 2012. Considering that Samsung's low-cost Chromebook has been Amazon.com's top-selling laptop since December 2012, none of this is surprising. Americans are really learning that remote is the new local, and that thick-n-chunky, virus-friendly operating systems are a hindrance rather than a requirement to get things done.

But now as the Chromebook is going global, significant changes can begin to alter the entire market for PCs and really provide a boost to cloud-based ecosystems. Starting back in April of this year, Google began selling Chromebooks in 10 other countries. Chrome OS might soon reach escape velocity and become a platform worthy of a lot more respect from developers who'll accelerate the shift of their focus to web-based technologies such as HTML5.

Big changes are coming to the PC industry and Microsoft executives have certainly received the wake-up call: last week Steve Ballmer announced a corporate restructuring around "Software & Services." What's amazing about this new & improved Microsoft is the amazing parallels to the new & improved Nokia in 2006 when company executives promulgated its new organization focusing the future of the company on a P&L center called "Software & Services" to effectively compete against the GYM players (Google, Microsoft, Yahoo!).

During the coming years we will certainly see many more major company adjustments, some of them late and desperate last-minute attempts to acclimate to the on-going cross-industry shifts which are underway. Some platforms will be abandoned, some new ones will be adopted, smart players will make successful business-model transitions, and some big names will fade fast. Chrome OS is one of the lights at the end of the tunnel.

Will the Fox-Fox partnership disrupt? Mozilla+Foxconn could change the market, but partnership success is spotty at best.

PRESS RELEASE >>
NEWS >>

Mozilla Firefox OS pages >>

KEY MOBILE TRENDS: HTML5, commoditization, Foxconn.

Last week manufacturing powerhouse Foxconn confirmed plans to support Mozilla's Firefox OS with a series of white-labeled devices. If the announced intentions are followed through, this has the potential to impact the handset market in several ways, disrupting both the feature phone and smartphone players.

To begin with, Firefox OS could establish HTML5 as a legitimate mobile ecosystem alternative and slowly dilute native development environments from the bottom up. This won't be easy given the entrenchment that iOS and Android now enjoy. And new ecosystems are notoriously difficult to get going. But HTML5 has the power of the next web behind it, and Apple and Google are largest contributors to the standardization work.

The initial impact of Firefox OS would be felt in developing markets in South America and Eastern Europe, where Mozilla execs believe the platform has the best chances of growing a user base. Firefox OS-based devices are expected to reach significantly lower price points compared to current smartphones on the market. Retail prices of Firefox OS devices should come in below $100, and possibly sub $50 as some point given the smaller hardware profile.

At such low price points, feature phone vendors will need prepare for a consumer expectation shift. If Firefox OS is designed with the future in mind, most current feature phone platforms are descendants of 20th century technology. Vendors such as Samsung and Nokia will need to evaluate Firefox OS. Already Alcatel TCL, ZTE, LG, Huawei, and Sony have announced some interest in the platform. Dismissing Firefox OS could be like snubbing Android in its early days.

But now the Foxconn partnership should be a wake-up call to the industry. While Foxconn will not be selling their own labeled devices, their support should lower the barriers to entry for all vendors great and small to bring Firefox OS devices to market with a rather immediate effect on the feature phone market and lower-end smartphone segment. A trickle-up could put more pressure on smartphone vendors' mid-price ranges and hit ASPs and margins across the industry.


However, it should be made clear that historically, such mega mobile partnerships have a very mixed track record of success. I think back to 1999 when Nokia and Palm, two of the biggest industry names at the time, announced a partnership to create the mobile platform of the future. But despite lots of travel between California and Helsinki, there was nothing to show for the initial market excitement beyond an a press release. And Mozilla's is not the only new platform looking to establish itself. Fresh open-source mobile operating systems from Ubuntu, Intel (Tizen), and Jolla, among others, are appearing on the market.

Nonetheless, history is always on the side of change. Mozilla has shaken up the market before and chipped its way forward against Microsoft's Internet Explorer. History could repeat itself.

Firefox APIs makes WebRTC easy as pie.

The CoIP BLOG >>

Thanks again to Janne K. for his "CoIP Blog." For those closely following all things communications over IP, be sure to bookmark Janne's CoIP Blog.

Below is a pair of videos to illustrate where things are heading. The operating system will disappear, the browser is the only interface you'll need, real-time communication becomes rich and smooth, and the old-fashioned phone number will become one for the ages.

We're getting close.

Google's $249 Chromebook. Is this the new screen of death for Microsoft? Is MS about to be Wanged?

I've had the opportunity to use Google's made-by-Samsung $249 Chromebook for a week now. It's sleek and it's neat. It's instant on, instant off, and it's in demand. As one of the best-selling laptops, it's time to wonder if Google isn't on its way to establish Chrome OS as the Android of PC world.

If such a shift seems unlikely given Windows' two-decade legacy, please take a peek at the next generation of white-collar workers. They are trained in the ways of Google Docs, think net before local, and have no loyalty to the platforms of their parents. Chrome OS could really be the next generation for the next generation.

Being in the center of such industry shifts is never fun. For most such unfortunate companies, it's a deer-in-the-headlights moment. Just ask the talented employees at Wang Laboratories. Wang who? Wang was hot property in its day making dedicated word processors and minicomputers competing against companies such as IBM and DEC (who?). But as the adoption of personal computers squeezed their markets, the company found itself in a painful downward spiral.

I remember well the formation of the Open Handset Alliance and the introduction of Android. It all started so innocently. But even the journey to a billion units starts with a single device. Google's Chrome OS is here to stay and we will soon begin to see it take some real market share. As we slowly march towards an HTML5 world, Chromebooks and Chromeboxes could be just what the doctor ordered.

And for Microsoft? Well, the future of Microsoft's Windows is looking cloudy.

Is this Microsoft's new screen of death?


A Wang dedicated word processor.
A market shift to PCs was a process they couldn't handle.

joyn or go over the top? joyn's window of opportunity is closing fast, but operators still have a chance to get rich if they get it right.

GSMA's Rich Communications Suite "joyn" appears to have some momentum now. But is it enough to push the service over the top?

Take for example, Korean operators offer joyn to users >>

Joyn is looking to be the theory of everything for mobile services. It covers voice, messaging, video, chat, presence, location, phonebook, sync, file sharing, and more, is intended to work cross platform, and runs atop operators' IMS networks allowing for efficient use of existing investments.

But joyn is coming late to a crowded rich communications party. The market is filled with successful free and air-interface agnostic over-the-top services such as Skype, FaceTime, Facebook, Google Talk, WhatsApp, Kik, and Viber. And now W3C's WebRTC (Real Time Communication) API which enables a similar suite of rich communications directly within browsers is being supported by Mozilla, Google, Opera, among others. To be clear and fair, joyn, OTT services, and WebRTC are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and can in fact be complementary.

Mobile World Congress 2013 is next month and the joyn-branded Rich Communications Suite of services will be one of the key themes. We can expect to see GSMA touting its RCSe architecture by listing the growing number of operators across the globe who have at least some plans to support joyn.

At best, joyn will experience a bumpy ride. Historically operators have a mixed track record of rolling out their own content services (this is especially the case in an all IP-environment). Some services have been mega hits —SMS and ringtones come to mind here— others, such as operator content portals, have tended to have little lasting impact on consumers.

While joyn will enjoy some time in the spotlight at MWC 2013, attentive analysts and bloggers will be looking for the vacuums: joyn's success could suffer from significant interest gaps as a number of key operators have shown ambivalence or complete apathy towards the service. In addition, the lack of native platform support could create significant provisioning nightmares for operators. Solid handset integration will be one requirement for wide adoption.

Operators do have a real opportunity with joyn. The industry has been talking about embedding rich services deep into handsets for more than half a decade. But talk is cheap. Joyn will need wide adoption and flawless implementation including clear and fair pricing to squeeze it through the closing window of opportunity.

Suite. joyn for young...


...and old alike:

Is the web about to get real? This nice Web Real Time Communications API demo by Firefox could make some market players uncomfortable.

When it comes CoIP (communications over IP) news, I follow The CoIP Blog. It's run by a guy who knows his CoIP. In fact, to the best of my knowledge, he coined term "CoIP."

That blogger, who was Nokia's in-house communications over IP expert for many years, has been providing some great coverage of WebRTC developments. Web Real-Time Communication being developed by the W3C could become an incredible enabler for open-standards based live communications over the web including live voice and video. Of course there are solutions on the market now, but the APIs being developed by the W3C could lead to some interesting new, low-cost communication approaches.

Below is a good video of VoIP things to come thanks to the coming WebRTC APIs. Will those mobile operators who are now blocking Skype packets begin blocking pages that use the WebRTC APIs? Legacy fightback can be such a bummer.

NEWS SOURCE, CoIP blogger Janne K.

TeleNav offers free, HTML5, browser-based navigation. The browser replaces the app. HTML5 is clearly the way to go.

TELENAV BLOG POST >>

Just how far can HTML5 take us?

An interesting signal for HTML5. TeleNav is claiming that they've "created the first HTML5 browser based navigation service for mobile devices!" This supports turn-by-turn navigation using the sensor features supported by HTML5.

Note that Nokia did introduce something along the same lines back in October: m.maps.nokia.com. Nokia's version supports offline maps to avoid data streaming. Believe me: you want this when roaming around Europe.

Is some mobile platform about to get the boot? Mozilla’s “Boot to Gecko” aims to make the web the OS of the future.

B2G webpages >>

MobileMag Story >>

It’s best to give Mozilla the respect they deserve. They took on Microsoft to change the browser biz. And now on to new things.

So, Mozilla is working on a web-based mobile platform similar in concept to Google’s Chrome OS. The general idea is to center the user experience around the browser with a strong reliance upon cloud-based services.

Even Mozilla acknowledges that the goals of the Boot to Gecko, or B2G, project are rather, well, cloudy. But Mozilla believes that there could be B2G handsets on the market already during 2012.

B2G will be coming up against some interesting competition, not so much in the other boot to browser concepts that are popping up, but in established platforms that appear to be evolving in the same direction. iOS, for example, has developed very strong ties to the web for direct updates, storage and backup, and Apple is one of the biggest supporters of HTML5 development within W3C.

Anyway, best of luck to Mozilla. The smartphone market could use a good kick to move things forward a bit. Will this be the real WebOS? Can Mozilla pull a Firefox out of the hat?

In a league of their own. Introducing the HTML5-focused mobile OS “Tizen.”

Linux Foundation PR >>

tizen.org site >>

When it comes to mobile, it seems that Intel is always a bridesmaid, never a bride. And now, after being left at the alter, Intel is in a quick rebound OS relationship. But this is something a little different.

Intel is breathing new life into MeeGo with the formation of “Tizen,” a platform being described as a next-generation Linux-based mobile platform. Tizen will bring together the experience and remaining energy from MeeGo (which itself was intended to be the best of Intel's Moblin and Nokia's Maemo platforms) with LiMo. Like MeeGo, Tizen will be hosted by The Linux Foundation. This time Intel has partnered with Samsung as the key handset vendor. Samsung's involvement isn't strange: I've always said Samsung never met a mobile platform they didn't like.

The twist here is the intention to skip directly to an HTML5-biased mobile platform, an evolved form of life where mobility meets the cloud.

Imad Sousou, director of the Intel's Open Source Technology Center, wrote in a blog post: "We believe the future belongs to HTML5-based applications, outside of a relatively small percentage of apps, and we are firmly convinced that our investment needs to shift toward HTML5. Shifting to HTML5 doesn't just mean slapping a Web runtime on an existing Linux, even one aimed at mobile, as MeeGo has been."

The Tizen website claims that the OS will be developed for television sets, tablets, and netwbooks as well as smartphones. So here's the problem: this all sounds so familiar. Tizen is coming from a dubious pedigree with a rocky track record.

To their credit, Intel is forming a respectable league of Linux. Teamed with the power of MeeGo, the blood of Moblin, the speed of LiMo, the strength of The Linux Foundation, and the determination of Samsung, will Intel be able to get itself out of this one in time? Can Tizen leapfrog other platforms in a single bound? Stay tuned. But note, history isn't on their side. Let the battle begin.

Intel forms a league of Linux:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p81_kAFdyr8

The Times is a-changin. The mobile industry's greatest rebel? The Financial Times? YES!

Who would have thought that The Financial Times would lead the revolt against Big Brother?

Last week the expected happened: Apple's bouncers threw The Financial Times out of the iTunes mall. That's a lot of potential foot traffic that the publisher is missing out on. FT's crime to deserve such a punishment? Their desire for independence and freedom. And for maximized profits. And their desire to hold onto their own subscriber data. And to connect to the outside world from within Apple's domain.

The significance here is the use of HTML5 instead of using a native SDK. HTML5 looks like it has the potential to be a key enabler for simple and even rather complex applications. Take a look, for example, at Google Voice on an iOS device, and you'd think you're running a locally installed application. In an HTML5-world, every webpage as the potential to be an app.

FT is claiming success with its app-in-a-web-link approach. And other content owners and app developers are looking at this case very closely. With profit margins slim as things are, the ability to move outside of Apple's walled garden to keep the 30% commission that Apple takes could be an attractive option for content owners with strong name recognition.

Ironically, Apple is one of the key supporters of HTML5 development in the World Wide Web Consortium. But Apple is a pretty swift company, and while not historically very active in standardization, they see the need to influence the future rather than stick their heads in the sand.

For now, we need a couple more major publishers jumping to HTML5 and away from native apps before labeling this one a trend. Remember, three makes a trend.

But the times are a-changin.



It's time to change... or sink like a stone.