The PEV Market: In Norway vs. Sweden, Norway wins 10 to 0.65.

Congratulations to Norway on its bicentennial. And as Norwegians celebrate the 200th anniversary of their constitution, they have another reason to be proud: this year Norway will be become the first country in which more than 10% of new car sales will be plug-in electrics during a full calendar year. This is an an amazing stat, especially for an oil-producing nation.

Let's compare Norway's adoption of e-cars to its neighboring nation of Sweden. Norway and Sweden are two countries of a similar shape and size. Similar cultures, languages, and tax systems. Two well-off countries with comparable infrastructures and reasonably comparable income levels. Yes, one has oil. But the other has IKEA. Let's call it a wash.

In a new market report Research Capsule is publishing entitled "PEVs, there's no turning back now," ReCap forecasts that while more than 10% of new cars sold in Norway during 2014 will be PEVs, only 0.65% of new cars sold in Sweden will be plug-ins (this includes PHEVs as well as full battery-electrics).

Countries which penalize car buyers with chunky fiscal disincentives to buy and own larger, heavier cars have the opportunity to encourage quick adoption of PEVs by reducing or eliminating those punitive damages. But many countries tax electric cars in essentially the same manner as internal combustion vehicles. Not Norway. Norway has eliminated many of the taxes and registration fees on PEVs, and also has created a great charging infrastructure for electrics. In addition, PEVs can park for free in many places and also use the bus lanes. These incentives have enabled Norway to become the world leader in the adoption of electric cars, and are the reason Tesla chose Norway as one of its first new markets outside of the U.S.

Looking across Norway's border, we see a vastly different market. In Sweden, we estimate less than 1,800 plug-in cars will be sold this year, or less than 0.65% of all new car sales. Any Swedish car buyer who does the math will find that there is no financial incentive to buy electric. Some cynical Swedes we've spoken with say that Sweden won't offer the same level of tax incentives as Norway until semi-Swedish Volvo becomes a real competitor in the PEV market. Why give sales away to Japanese Nissan? It's an interesting thought, though Volvo does have some plug-in hybrids.

Let's call this the Scandinavian Contrast. Norway v Sweden. But soon many of the Norwegian fiscal incentives are set to expire meaning Norway itself will be the perfect Petri dish for observing an e-car culture. In the race to PEV adoption, will Norway's lead be frozen in time?


Norway is in the PEV fast lane:
Drivers of electric cars can use the bus lanes.

AC/DC. Driving Standards Forward. History might not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. Sometimes.

Driving Standards Forward. History might not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. Sometimes.

I'm studying the market for plug-in electric vehicles and it sure does remind me of the wireless world of the 1980s. Back then there were air interface specs of all sorts. For those who love standards, there were plenty to choose from. And now with pevs, it's time for more fun.

Ready?

When it comes to charging plug-in electric vehicles, there's a small learning curve to overcome. You see, there's Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 charging. There are also modes. There's Mode 1, Mode 2, Mode 3, and Mode 4. Mode 4 usually equals Level 3, but it depends on where you are. At times Modes 2 and 3 cover Level 2, but Mode 1 is almost always the same as Level 1, but sometimes Mode 2 is Level 1. But not in France, Japan and parts of the U.S. and some cities in China, depending on what car you drive. And for clarity, there are connection cases. There's Case A, Case B, and Case C. Case B is often Mode 3 which might be Level 2, and C is direct, not alternating you see. And though "Case A" sounds like it's the best case yet, it's actually the worst you can get. (Oh, yea, and before I forget: that case can be 110 or 220, which are actually 120 or 240, again it depends.)

Where do you go to juice up your new e-bucket? Well, there are EVSEs, charging points, charging stations, charging piles, and charging locations. They are all the same, except sometimes they aren't, especially in China. Charging stations are charging locations. Or they might be points or piles or plugs or ports. Pick your poison. You can go to public stations at private locations, or private points at public places. You can pay with points, or you can juice up gratuit. That means free to you and me.

OK, so that's just the semantics of charging. The words. The terms. It's WiFi vs. IEEE 802.11*. It's 4G vs. LTE. It's just like that. But the plug itself offers some more challenging facts. There are connectors and couplers, pistols and cores, and so, so much more.

Ready? You might have an AC-based SAE J1772 charger but could step up to a DC-based unit using the included CHAdeMO cable. (If it's not included, just charge it.) Of course there are proprietary solutions like Tesla's Supercharger. Forget stepping up, there you might want to step down, so get an adapter to use all the slow Level 2's in town.

Well, we all have our types, and so do these cars. There's Type 1 and 2 meaning very different things, there's Type 3 and 4, yes there are plug specs galore.

Then there's AC and DC, and the number of volts. (Tesla developed AC, but Tesla uses DC, somewhat ironically.) There's slow and there's fast, but nothing between. Although there actually is. No it's not easy being green.

Just like the old days of the cellular world, PEV charging has the same mess of specs and terms. There are coverage maps, there are coverage gaps. There's roaming, and dead zones, and specs made of alphabet soup. And there are the early adopters who put up with all this poop.

It's not always easy being green. Why can't these things just use USB?

The industry needs some global standard leadership. And some clever promoter group to boot, to give us nicer terms.