Why wearable computing? "Because people are starting to get a little bit bored with the smartphone."

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KEY MOBILE TRENDS: wearable computing, ubiquitous computing, natural user interface, sensors
EVENT HORIZON: 2 YEARS

"Now is the right time for wearables..."

It's funny: we know more about what some vague acquaintances had for lunch last week than we do about our own bodies. Hopefully we are in for a change very soon.

So, smartphone vendors, if these people are right, it's time to understand a new generation of product opportunities. Please get ready to get it on!

Skating to where the puck is growing next. Good foresighting is only part of the game.

Yesterday I had the pleasure of being a guest lecturer at a master's business class at Lund University, a large university in southern Sweden. (Thanks to the course arrangers for the invite.)

My talk was about some of the lessons I learned during my decade and a half working with Nokia including the dangers of taking the cash cow for granted while pursuing stars, the threats of egocentrism, and the threat of dismissing wounded competitors.

I found it interesting that included on the course's required reading list was a Harvard Business Review article from November 2001 entitled "Skate to where the money will be" by Clayton Christensen, Michael Raynor, and Matt Verlinden. (I know that there were many Christensen fans in Nokia and his business theories influenced many managers in the company.)

The article used the ice hockey metaphor of the importance of skating to where the puck is going to be, not to where it is now. The article points out that it was such a foresighting instinct that made Wayne Gretzky a great player. Similarly, businesses should have the foresighting ability to go to where the action will be. It does make for a good business-world metaphor.

Ironically that same HBR article was practically required reading within Nokia for many years. The article was widely circulated around the company and the "skate to where the puck is going" metaphor was widely quoted both inside the company and externally by upper Nokia management. (Perhaps not surprising coming from a Finnish company given the hockey culture.)

But let's throw out some scenarios. What if you have the foresighting instinct to see where the puck is headed but aren't too good at skating (bad at implementing), or you are looking a bit too far ahead and you waste time waiting for the puck to come to you (bad timing).

A company called 3Com introduced the "Audrey" tablet computer back in the year 2000. The device was a bit bulky and awkward to use (implementation) and many of the enablers weren't quite ready at the time like the screens and wide WiFi adaption (timing), but we have to give them credit: they certainly were skating to where the action would be -- about ten years before it got there. They were waiting there with hockey stick in hand until the product and later the company died of boredom. The road to oblivion is sometimes paved with good inventions.

I've deviated Woody Allen's success quote before on this blog. I will do it here again: 80% of success is showing up at the right time and in the right style.

In the mobile game, the ultimate goal is not just to make a goal, but to win the title match season after season. That's the real trophy. That's the real trick. But if you don't realize when you are skating on thin ice, it might be time for the coach to call a timeout. Or it might be time to replace the coach.



Y2K problem? The Audrey tablet device (picture below) from the year 2000.
3Com (three who?) skated to where the puck would be a decade too early.

Maybe flex is the next touch. Nokia flexes some muscle with this prototype device.

via IntoMobile >>

Talk about twist and shout.

OK, prototypes are what they are: prototypes. They’re mouth-watering technology demos sometimes miles away from reality. They create some excitement, curiosity, and even envy. I’ve seen my share. But then they disappear.

So, here we something a bit different from Nokia: the use of a flexible display for input. Flexible displays is one of those inspirational technology enablers that we’ve seen pop up now and again during the past five years, but never make it on any mainstream device. (The thought of a roll-up or foldable large-screen device is something many of us are waiting for.)

So, Nokia's "Kinetic Device" is a crowd-pleaser if nothing else. I read in one interview that Nokia thinks that such devices could come to market for real and “hopefully soon.” That would be a stretch. But then again, perhaps Nokia is really becoming a more flexible organization.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsbZOKahdMw

Putting your company's futures planning on ice?Foresight now... or face extinction.

Ask yourself: what refrigerator equivalent will come along and disrupt my industry... and kill my job?

When you’re in the ice business, you had better be prepared for the invention of something like the fridge. Or face a cold, dark future.

Disruptions happen. Just ask the once happy shareholders of the Knickerbocker Ice Company. Once a major supplier of frozen H2O to homes and businesses along the East Coast of the United States --and beyond--, Knickerbocker Ice had it all: an extensive and complex distribution network, fantastic supply chain, brand recognition, scale. And apparently a killer recipe for ice. Yes, Knickerbocker was flying high, and the company’s executives certainly never wanted the ice age to end.

With company headquarters next to a crystal fresh-water lake very close to the Hudson River, and only 40 kilometers north of New York City, Knickerbocker Ice had smooth-sailing access to one of the world’s largest markets for ice. By the mid-1800s, Knickerbocker Ice had become a major utility. The company employed thousands at its peak, had ice warehouses (“icehouses”) up and down the East Coast, employed expert global ice traders, and established a brand name via the ubiquitous “iceman” who yelled “ice” from the city streets. Consumers would rush down to buy ice by price. “Give me 10 cents worth of ice, Tony.”

Then along came electric utilities, a killer enabler as far as Knickerbocker Ice should have been concerned. Electric juice enabled refrigeration. And the fridge put an end to the profitable business of pushing ice. In 1924, the Knickerbocker Ice Company closed up shop. The ice age had come to an end for KIC.

What does this have to do with trends in the wireless industry? I suppose nothing directly. But there is a lesson to be learned here. (Living through the current power outage in the New York region was my inspiration for this initial post, having to hunt down ice at various supermarkets.)

Looking at the wireless industry, certain companies are flying high right now. Smartphone sales are exploding across the globe, consumers are cutting the cord, and the internet is headed toward mobile favoritism. Yes, things are hot in the wireless business these days. The device form factor is in place, service providers have sliced up the pie, and adjacent industries are beginning to melt into the mobile milieu.

So, now is the time for mobile-related firms to prepare for the day when the mobile industry as we currently know it dries up. What will be the disruptive enabler? It’s a tough call.

After years of following and reporting mobile developments for a major handset vendor, I plan to use this blog to share my observations and opinions a bit more widely. I enjoy trying to catch trends and spot opportunities. And uncover that coming disruptive enabler.

Remember, every business goes cold at some point. And then it’s time to move on to the next hot thing.



A Knickerbocker Ice factory:
A great supply chain & logistics weren't enough to keep the firm afloat

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