More Minolta Moments. Which handset vendor will leave the hardware business next? Here I venture to guess.

Minolta Moments. Perhaps no industry has more of them than the handset biz.

What's a Minolta Moment? Well, ask most people these days what Minolta makes and they'll tell you "cameras." Good, Japanese-quality cameras. But they don't. Minolta hasn't made cameras in almost 10 years. Back in 2006 Konica Minolta announced that their market share was too slim, as were the profit margins in the camera biz, to stay in the market. They packed up and left. Konica Minolta doesn't make cameras any longer. They make copy machines and other office equipment. They are an enterprise company.

The handset business has been full of Minolta Moments during the past two decades. For fun, let's look twenty years back at the world's top-ten handset vendors of 1994 and see which are still making phones. (When a mother company sells off the brand, that means they got out of the business in my opinion.) In 1994, Motorola was the dominant global player. But Motorola's mother ship got out of the business. (As did Google.) Nokia doesn't make handsets any longer. Ericsson doesn't. NEC really doesn't. Panasonic barely does. Siemens got out. Philips did. Oki. Toshiba. Mitsubishi.

So, these handset vendors in 1994 had a combined global market share of around 90%. And today? To be honest, I'm not quite sure. The number is so small, it's difficult to figure out. The combined share is likely less than 1% now that Nokia phones are Microsoft phones, and Motorola phones are Google phones soon to be Lenovo phones, just as Alcatel phones have nothing to do with Alcatel. To put this in perspective, imagine for a second the combined automotive market shares of GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, Nissan, Renault, Honda, Fiat, Mazda, and Hyundai dropped to 1% over a period of a decade or two. That's how much the handset market has changed.

So, now it's time for some conjecture. It's time to ask who's next. Where will the future handset Minolta Moments come from? Well, BlackBerry is a goner as far as I'm concerned. They're getting ready for a perfect Minolta Moment. Ready to concentrate on soft enterprise solutions. Then there's LG. Sure, LG is still a top-ten handset vendor, but they're a long way off from where they want to be. (I'm guessing Sony will stay the course, trying to leverage their sub-brands and content.)

The semi-surprise will be when Microsoft announces their handset Minolta Moment. Perhaps such a second-hand Minolta Moment can be called a "Google Shift:" At some point in time, Microsoft will sell off the Nokia brand they have access to, likely to an Asian vendor. (Nokia is still a great brand name in many Asian countries.) They'll sell off the factories they bought. Some of the patents they have access to. Offices and chairs and pencils and market channels. Microsoft press releases will call it a strategic move allowing Microsoft to concentrate on creating amazing mobile software while working with a fantastic hardware partner. Or something like that. Yep, the platitudes will pour out, bloggers will have a field day, Microsoft's stock will shoot up 3% seconds after the announcement as they also announce plans to close their sad-looking, empty retail stores.

I have to say, for the handset business, it's been a rather ugly picture for legacy vendors.

Strange. Minolta doesn't make cameras. And Nokia doesn't make phones.

Extreme phone makeover. Android lovers, is it time to meet your maker? Check out Motorola's new "Motomaker" service. Customization is in style.

"As you like it" Shakespeare once said, so I'll take mine in teak with the front cover in red.

From shabby chic to shoes for your feet, the goal these days is to make it unique. And this is what Motorola does with their "Motomaker" service for their new "MOTO X" device. Your phone, your design. The evolution from "as long as it's black" has been a bumpy one in the handset business, but Motorola might be the vendor to drive this mainstream.

Customization started almost two decades ago in the handset business. Ericsson offered changeable covers in the very early '90s. And then came ringtones and wallpaper downloads which enabled soft solutions to differentiation. And Nokia took things further with printable faces and 3D printable cases. Heck, Nokia even offered a Motomaker-like service back in 2008, allowing fans to design their own Supernovas using the online "NokiaBuild" tool. (That Nokia service was tested in a few European markets and wasn't taken further as I can recall.) To give credit where it's due, Nike's NIKEid may have been an inspiration for such customization. And Nike may have been inspired by large-scale PC and automakers and small-scale tee-shirt vendors.

No, Motorola wasn't first with the one-off. But handset vendors would be wise to keep an eye on consumer acceptance and expectations here, especially as devices and accessories become more wearable and more variable. Lean mass customization might not be unique for much longer.

Motorola's Motomaker. Check it out:


Nokia's 3200 from 2003. From print your own faces...


...to print your own cases. Download and print your own Lumia case from Nokia.


NokiaBuild from 2008. Design your own Nokia 7310 Supernova.



Shoes to fit the person and personality: Nike, Converse, Vans...

Chrome begins to shine. Google's Chromebook is the one star in a shrinking PC market. And it highlights major shifts ahead.

PCMAG STORY:
Chromebook Sales Growth Bucks PC Market's Downward Trend >>

MAJOR TRENDS: Cloud, HTML5, low-cost, commoditization, business-model changes

Back in February, I wrote about the next potential screen of death for Microsoft: Google's Chromebook. ("Is MS about to be Wanged?" Feb 25, 2013). At a price of $249, the Samsung-made Chromebook is an extremely capable, super sleek, cloud-centric laptop. It's solid and secure, low-maintenance and high-value. Set it and forget it. But now it's getting tough to ignore.

According to research firm NPD, Chromebooks dominated the low-cost segment of the U.S. laptop market during the half of 2013 with as much as 25% share. And according to Gartner, Chromebooks accounted for almost 5% of all U.S. laptop sales, up from around 1% — 2% in 2012. Considering that Samsung's low-cost Chromebook has been Amazon.com's top-selling laptop since December 2012, none of this is surprising. Americans are really learning that remote is the new local, and that thick-n-chunky, virus-friendly operating systems are a hindrance rather than a requirement to get things done.

But now as the Chromebook is going global, significant changes can begin to alter the entire market for PCs and really provide a boost to cloud-based ecosystems. Starting back in April of this year, Google began selling Chromebooks in 10 other countries. Chrome OS might soon reach escape velocity and become a platform worthy of a lot more respect from developers who'll accelerate the shift of their focus to web-based technologies such as HTML5.

Big changes are coming to the PC industry and Microsoft executives have certainly received the wake-up call: last week Steve Ballmer announced a corporate restructuring around "Software & Services." What's amazing about this new & improved Microsoft is the amazing parallels to the new & improved Nokia in 2006 when company executives promulgated its new organization focusing the future of the company on a P&L center called "Software & Services" to effectively compete against the GYM players (Google, Microsoft, Yahoo!).

During the coming years we will certainly see many more major company adjustments, some of them late and desperate last-minute attempts to acclimate to the on-going cross-industry shifts which are underway. Some platforms will be abandoned, some new ones will be adopted, smart players will make successful business-model transitions, and some big names will fade fast. Chrome OS is one of the lights at the end of the tunnel.

Will it trend: Lifelogging? Will we soon all be wearing the equivalent of dash cams around our heads?

KEY MOBILE TRENDS: wearable computing, lifelogging, ODLs, privacy.
EVENT HORIZON: four years.


Robert Scoble's interesting take on Google Glass includes this key observation: "I will never live a day of my life from now on without it (or a competitor). It's that significant."

So, are we really seeing a technology shift in front of our eyes which will change our lives forever? The next passenger jet? The next internet? A technology which will become so pervasive, so embedded, we will soon wonder how we ever lived without it? Another so-called paradigm shift for better, or for worse?

Devices like Google Glass enable users to capture and store the most ordinary events of everyday life. And there are more where Glass came from. Memento, a Sweden-based start-up, is developing a miniscule wearable connected camera to help users seamlessly capture moment after moment. A day in the life of the user.

The technology-enablers are no longer the issue. Components are getting small enough and cheap enough so that items like Glass could become just another household purchase. Another creature comfort for the 21st century. The real question about disruptions is rarely the technology, but rather, consumer acceptance. How will individuals and society's norms adjust to ubiquitous recording? And how will privacy laws react to a 24X7, capture-capable society?

Will life-logging devices crash and burn, or lead us into the future? Let's take a look ahead.

The ubiquitous Russian dash cam. Are we headed in this direction?

Momento, the lifelogging camera. Imagine capturing every minute of your life:

Building Experiences with Glass. A 50-minute video on Glass app guidelines aimed at interested developers.

The post-smartphone era could provide a fresh start for many industry players. Look at this as a potential opportunity.

KEY MOBILE TRENDS: Post-smartphone era, Lifelogging, Augmented Reality, developers.
EVENT HORIZON: Four years.

Here's a video recommended for all app & service developers who might want to start thinking about the post-smartphone era of devices. I also recommend this for smartphone executives who need to keep on top of longer-term trends for threatening industry shifts. It's speculative, but it is a vision.

The user experience is very different with HUDs and will take some new approaches from UI designers and developers. There are certainly some re-skilling required.

PS: Please let's not start calling this a "technology disruption" five years down the road when we know all about it now.

Wearing, thin. The white hot mobile trend: ubiquitous computing & thin clients is wear it's at.

SAMSUNG (SMART)WATCH CONFIRMED >>

KEY MOBILE TRENDS: wearable computing, sensors, multi-device ownership, smartwatches, wellbeing, ubiquitous computing

Talking shoes from Google, contextual-sensing jewelry from Samsung. Big brands and small, device vendors had better get to wear the action is.

You will certainly be hearing lots about wearable devices over the coming year, and some of you might get tired of the exaggerated stories and the miserable puns. But when hype reaches its peak is when it's really time to evaluate market potential and write down business-development plans.

I've been hearing about ubiquitous computing since the turn of the century. The long-term vision of migrating machine interaction into everyday things and away from personal computers and handsets has excited technology executives to such a degree, that most large tech companies and campuses formed UC units. Now, the enablers are nearly in place and products will rain onto the market during the coming years. Many products will fail to deliver, but a few will really change the way we live and breath.

Google Glass and Google's talking shoe concept (please see video below) are two examples of keeping people contextually informed and constantly connected to the grid. Every smartphone vendor worth its salt will be sprouting sensor-filled mobile accessories during the coming years.

While we know the components enabling this key trend, as is so often the case, the supporting business models are the real uncertainty. Some legitimate mobile healthcare-related services will prove to be a good value for healthcare providers and individuals, but leveraging the vast amounts of data collected could lead to a trade of atoms for bits, that is, lower-cost accessories in return for some of the contextual data.

I suspect most large handset vendors have their wearable computing in-house experts and major mobile platforms are working on robust APIs to support the development of an array of accessories and applications. Vendors who aren't prepared could be left out in the cold.

So, looking forward, computing power and sensors will be everyware. Are you ready to uncover the opportunities?

Platitude & attitudes: this shoe from Google/Adidas will make life much tougher:

Google's $249 Chromebook. Is this the new screen of death for Microsoft? Is MS about to be Wanged?

I've had the opportunity to use Google's made-by-Samsung $249 Chromebook for a week now. It's sleek and it's neat. It's instant on, instant off, and it's in demand. As one of the best-selling laptops, it's time to wonder if Google isn't on its way to establish Chrome OS as the Android of PC world.

If such a shift seems unlikely given Windows' two-decade legacy, please take a peek at the next generation of white-collar workers. They are trained in the ways of Google Docs, think net before local, and have no loyalty to the platforms of their parents. Chrome OS could really be the next generation for the next generation.

Being in the center of such industry shifts is never fun. For most such unfortunate companies, it's a deer-in-the-headlights moment. Just ask the talented employees at Wang Laboratories. Wang who? Wang was hot property in its day making dedicated word processors and minicomputers competing against companies such as IBM and DEC (who?). But as the adoption of personal computers squeezed their markets, the company found itself in a painful downward spiral.

I remember well the formation of the Open Handset Alliance and the introduction of Android. It all started so innocently. But even the journey to a billion units starts with a single device. Google's Chrome OS is here to stay and we will soon begin to see it take some real market share. As we slowly march towards an HTML5 world, Chromebooks and Chromeboxes could be just what the doctor ordered.

And for Microsoft? Well, the future of Microsoft's Windows is looking cloudy.

Is this Microsoft's new screen of death?


A Wang dedicated word processor.
A market shift to PCs was a process they couldn't handle.

Is Google about to release the high-end "X Phone." Maybe, but sorry to tell you Google, the name is already taken. See the unbelievable xphone.

SLASHGEAR STORY: Google X Phone flagshipp tipped with Motorola in tow >>

Is Google about to make a serious push into the high-end smartphone and tablet business with amazing new devices? Will they alienate some of their best Open Handset Partners with direct competition? After a series of dull years, 2013 could turn out to be interesting for the smartphone biz.

Frankly, It doesn't make too much sense to me: Google would push deeper into a low-margin business from a high margin business. That's business development in reverse. Sure, they've had the Nexus-line of handsets. But those were more like technology demos made by OEM partners. But if Google starts using its Motorola skill set to challenge Apple at the high-end of the smartphone and tablet market, perhaps as an attempt to get an early jump into mobile finance, the ramifications across the handset industry could be exciting. Perhaps it would push more OEMs and operators towards Windows Phone or Firefox OS.

So, are Google "X Phones" really in the works as is being reported? will Google release in-house designed, high-end devices to shake up the market. I'm not sure. But I do have some bad news for Google: the xphone has already been done. It's an unbelievable product out of Germany.

I've tried myself to find this device, but supplies do seem to be limited. Perhaps you'll find an xphone under the tree in the coming days. So, good luck with that and happy holidays!

PLEASE NOTE: The video is in German, but you'll get the picture.

Tongue in cheek of the week: Who said that? Android is winning the war says Google's Eric Schmidt. Exclusive Google business model video!

Who would have guessed that Android would so quickly become the extreme power of the smartphone universe? Who would have envisioned such market domination?

Google's CEO Eric Schmidt said this week that it is now clear that Android is winning the mobile platform war against iOS and of course others. And according to analysts, Android has as much as 75% global share of the smartphone market.

It's about time we face reality: Android has basically exterminated most of the other competitors on the market. This is no laughing matter! Who will save us now?

Is there a doctor in the house?

De Frag. Fragmented thinking created a temporary comfort zone for Android competitors. Painful.

Cellular News Story & platform market shares >>

Android took 75% market share during Q3 2012! With fragmentation like that, who needs unity?

A few years back as Google just began kicking up its huge mobile dust storm in earnest, most Android competitors took some comfort in the fragmentation myth: that the many emerging isotopes and skins of Android would result in a broken ecosystem and developer & consumer pain. So when IDC announced the other day that Android's share of global smartphone shipments reached 75% during Q3 2012, I began to wonder what went wrong with that fragmented way of thinking. Where did it come from?

The current market stats are amazing: there were 136 million Android-based smartphones shipped during Q3 according to IDC, five times as many iOS-based smartphones. Those two platforms now have an oligopoly with 90% market share, leaving the others to fight for the market crumbs. How did it come to this?

The contradictory notion that Android's sudden white hot success would turn into its undoing reeked of sour grapes. Android's wide market adoption was a painful lesson for the market incumbents to watch. Google, a virtual mobile newcomer, was being taken very, very seriously. By operators. By vendors. By developers. And by consumers.

Smartphone portfolios were suddenly filled with Android-based devices, and Google's apps store quickly filled with high quality apps and services.

And then came talk of potential binary breaks as Google amazed with version updates at an inhuman pace. Some industry executives chimed in. There were too many OS builds on the market at the same time. Too many form factors. Too many APIs, too many tweaks, too many options, and too much customization. Supposedly the belief was that all this would be Android's Achilles' heel.

But for the most part, in the end, this fragmented thinking did a lot more harm to the competition. It enabled the creation of artificial comfort zones and supported the on-going denial of real-world trajectories. Industry executives from several non-Android adopter companies pointed to Google's market dynamics as being self destructive. Thick PowerPoint stacks were creating trying to prove this theory. All a waste of energy.

Exaggerating or inventing competitors' weaknesses is an effective --but expensive-- method of rationalizing. Rather than looking in the mirror, it's tempting to spend energy in trying to prove the competition is wrong than prove yourself right. It's a matter of creating the proper mental attitude. And aptitude.

Binary breaks? A million tiny pieces? Android managed to keep itself together.

Google announces limited offline maps. Can help prevent roaming sticker shock [within a 10-mile radius].

via CNET >>

This announcement is significant news for some handset vendors and more bad news for makers of personal navigation devices. The ability to conveniently pre-load maps onto an Android device means that no connection is required to stream map data while navigating. And map data can gobble up bandwidth very quickly.

Android devices did already have the ability to cache map data, but the intention was for a smoother map viewing experience. Google has also announced some improved aesthetic features for Maps and Earth such as a series of impressive 3D Fly-overs and expanded Street View.

While this might appear to be a marginal category improvement from Google and has been expected, it is meaningful to most industry players such as Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, Garmin and TomTom.

Free, high-quality offline navigation from Google has altered the playing field. Mapping has become on the of key mobile battle grounds, and no vendor can afford to get lost along the way.

Has Apple put OSM on the map? OpenStreetMap makes it to the big leagues with Apple adoption. Yup, street cred.

DIGITALTRENDS STORY >>

In the beginning, there were two. Two major vendors of map information. It was a near-perfect duopoly. There was Chicago-based NAVTEQ and Netherlands-based Tele Atlas (purchased by Nokia and TomTom respectively). But as GPS chips became cheap and ubiquitous, the potential new business models for location-based services attracted fresh blood.

So Google brought together their own map-making team. They drove and biked around and noted coordinates and WiFi MAC addresses and they even accidently grabbed a personal e-mail or two.

Because Google Maps and the accompanying APIs were free and rather fun, they became the platform of choice for third-party location-based services. Foursquare and even Apple threw layers of information on top of Google Maps. But then, suddenly, the party was over.

Back in October 2012, Google announced its intent to begin charging services that were piggy backing on its maps. There would be a fee for constant trespassing as of Jan 1, 2012.

But there is a free lesser-known alternative: OpenStreetMap. The OSM project uses crowd-sourcing to created an open-source competitor to the commercial map platforms mentioned above. OSM started slowly back in 2004, and gained global contributors over the years. And now, according to Wikipedia, there are more than half a million OpenStreetMap contributors.

While a few companies such as AOL/MapQuest, Foursquare and some smaller navigation vendors have backed OSM over the past few years, the biggest acknowledgement for the volunteer group came last week when Apple introduced the new iPad. Some keen observers noted that a number of Apple's map-related applications were no longer layering information on top of Google's maps, but rather OpenStreetMaps. Photos on places, for example, are shown on top of OSM maps.

This means significant street cred for OSM. It looks like OpenStreetMap has found its way.

OpenStreetMap logo:

Google Glasses rumor. Is it time to take heads-up displays serious as a device form factor?

Android Authority Story >>

In a smartphone market filled with look-alike, black rectangular products, is it time to eye fresh, new form factors?

Way back in the year 2000, I had the opportunity to try a few near-to-eye displays being pitched at several major trade shows. The devices came from both start-ups and mega consumer electronics vendors which saw these gadgets as a potential new computing form factor.

So, the rumor is that Google is actively working on developing a stand-alone heads-up display device that could be, in effect, "smart glasses." The glasses would run a thin version of Android on top of an ARM processor, have voice recognition, and a series of sensors such as gyroscope and accelerometer to detect head movement and direction.

Apparently one of the key applications of the glasses is to support augmented reality. Such glasses could, for example, detect what products the user might be looking at using a front-facing camera and then display additional information and pricing details for the user. We could begin to wonder what new types of information collection this would enable: Google already knows what we're looking at in the virtual world. Now the company can begin to collect information about what people are looking at in the physical world as well.

Privacy issues aside, I think Google and other vendors of HUDs and NEDs have an uphill battle. While I see discreet wearable computing has significant potential, I can't say that I see eye-to-eye with such an in-your-face approach to keeping users connected. But as always, it's important to remain open-minded to change, and maintain a heads-up approach to monitoring any potential form factor shifts and opportunities.


View to a kill. (via 9TO5 Google)


Sony's near-to-eye display: the market seems far away.

Let's face it. Input is changing.

Is your mobile platform ready to face the facts for 2012?

$444m. The number of the beast? With paper, Microsoft has become a profitable Android player. Has the look-alike smartphone market become boring?

Microsoft making millions milking monster OS. PCMAG STORY >>

Oh where's the innovation these days?

If I were a smartphone vendor, I'd be very concerned about long-term industry profitability. The majority of smartphone vendors are currently losing money... and that's in a booming market. Imagine how things will look when the market levels off. The smartphone market is starting to look a lot like the airline industry.

According to a recent Goldman Sachs report, Microsoft will make around $444 million this year from Google's Android via licensing fees for its embedded IPR. And as Microsoft continues to pursue IPR and licensing deals on top of Android, getting somewhere between $5 to $10 per pop, Android could become a billion dollar business for Microsoft. (Ironically, Android is currently more profitable for Microsoft than is Windows Phone.)

Of course, in reality, Microsoft is looking for a way to boost Windows Phone, and by working the other side of the equation to increase Android handset prices, Microsoft will have a more competitive platform on their hands. A $10 licensing fee is significant amount of money on a device with a bill of materials that is approaching sub-$100.

For years, the employees of legal and IPR departments in companies around the world have been worried about potential of "submarine" IPR attacks against Linux, with some troll waiting around for a large installed user base before rising to the surface. In the end, it was something much larger.

As the smartphone battler gets more vicious, it will take some heavy guns for any platform to succeed. The business is now as much about collecting patents as it is about innovation.

As the world awaits the next iteration of the iPhone, the truth is, we already know to expect more of the same: some nice marginal improvements, but nothing revolutionary. And competitors will match feature-for-feature in this follow-the-leader market.

Smartphone developments have gone flat.

Google Wallet. The cards are in it.

Back in the year 2000, I saw a great presentation about the potential of the mobile wallet. The presenter was working with the world's largest handset maker at the time, and he gave a convincing mobile finance pitch: he pulled out his wallet and began pulling out one plastic card after another after another after another. The use case was clear: this mess would be cleaned up with an electronic wallet embedded in our handsets. The presenter assured the audience that within a few years, this would be the case.

So, here we are, almost a dozen years later, and such concepts of convenience haven't gotten very far. At least until today. Google has just rolled out its "Google Wallet" service together with U.S. operator Sprint via the Nexus S smartphone. The Nexus S is a vanilla Android phone, but Google did have the foresight to NFC enable the device, thus making it a good technology demo machine for mobile finance.

Eventually, a MasterCard, Visa, American Express and/or Discover card could be embedded in your device as well as many loyalty cards to be used at payWave- or PayPass-enabled point-of-sale terminals.

Will Google Wallet succeed? One thing is for sure: Google's timing is very good: the cost of NFC has come down considerably, and we can expect most mid- to high-end smartphones coming out over the next few years to be NFC enabled. And Android's critical mass could be the key driver: around 50% of new smartphones shipped run Android. But success is a double-edged sword, and the other major U.S. operators aren't so keen to give up this business development opportunity. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile have their own mobile payment partnership project, ISIS. And Apple will likely give Google and the operators a run for their money with the iPhone 5.

So who will spark the mobile finance market for real? My money is on Google. They have the global reach, critical mass, adjacent services, and name recognition to pull this thing off. It's in the cards.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsaJMhcLm_A

Damned truth and statistics. Is Google buying a major global smartphone vendor in Motorola Mobility? No.

"Verticalization and integration. Distribution and production. Global reach and blah blah blah."

I've been reading and listening to the opinions of many analysts and tech reporters about Google's planned takeover of Motorola Mobility. All mention the importance of Motorola's patent portfolio as part of Google's buying decision. Agreed. And most go on to talk about how Google will take this much further. "They will take tighter control of the Android ecosystem." "They will have vertical control like Apple has now." "They have purchased a major manufacturer of smartphones." I don't agree. The stats and facts of what Motorola really is don't fully support this.

Unfortunately for Motorola, this isn't 1995 any longer. The truth is, Motorola is no longer a major global player in much of anything. And for the most part, they don't "manufacture" anything either. (That's been outsourced to companies such as Foxconn.) For those who propose that Google is buying a big smartphone player with grand scale and great global reach, let's check the stats. MOTO's share of the global smartphone market is around 4%, most of that from sales in the U.S., Brazil, and China.

Motorola is only the 8th global smartphone vendor, with both Huawei and ZTE breathing down MOTO's neck. Motorola's smartphone market share across Europe hovers around 1% (due to an intentional concentration on the part of Motorola), and Motorola's handset unit has been running on negative profit margins nearly every quarter over the past five years, meaning Google will be diluting their margins going forward if they really do plan a serious push into the hardware business, all things being equal. Diluting margins? That would be a bizarre strategy on the part of Google.

Was Google really searching for a way to become a significant global smartphone vendor? If so, I think their luck has run out.