There's nothing like a good form factor battle to get a market going.
I'm not sure if it's just confirmation bias on my part, or the wearables market really is the hottest and most exciting tech trend since the introduction of the white iPhone.
Wearables-related headlines are all over the place, from popular tech blogs to all the major business magazines like Forbes (which often indicates the peak of hype). I'm still an agnostic coward when it comes to predicting the future of these gadgets. I don't see any network effect yet, and I don't know one single person who wears one, even though I know people who work for companies which make these.
Let's face it: the market still needs a poster child. And some killer apps. And, of course, a decisive form factor.
So, Samsung has their square Gear, but Samsung is one company they never met a platform or a form factor they didn't like. No company spreads the risk like Samsung. There is little doubt that Samsung would love to corner the market on smart watches. Don't like square wear? It looks like Samsung is getting ready to make a profound turnaround in smart watches.
Did Samsung just re-invent the circular smart watch?
This isn't another entry about the dual-SIM smartphone trend; this is another entry about the dual-SIM flagship smartphone trend. A big difference.
No mainstream vendor has been on top of the dual-SIM trend like Samsung. Here's the dual-SIM Galaxy S 4 for the Chinese market. When one just isn't enough.
Why it matters? A brain-controlled mobile device could give paralyzed people more ways to interact with the world while also improving functionality for all of us. MIT Technology Review
Samsung is collaborating with the University of Texas in Dallas to develop thought-controlled user interfaces for tablets. The more immediate goal is to help those with with mobility impairments, but long term, brainwaves could be yet another way to interact with devices.
Most smartphone makers have been seriously looking into BCI for mobile devices for years, but I see that the race is on in earnest for some vendor to bring some WOW to the market with this. Nonetheless I expect one of the big-three game console vendors to break in the market to BCI within the next few years with a mainstream accessory. Auto manufacturers could be the Cinderella story however.
A smartphone with a 5.8-inch and 6.3-inch display. Why not? This isn't amazing news per se, as this Samsung device has been widely leaking and it's really just another phablet as we've seeing. And even though these are bigger than Samsung's 5.5-inch Note, Samsung is calling these "smartphones."
Other than the size of the screen, the specs are not amazing: no LTE, 1.4GHz Dual Core, 720p, ...
The big question is: now that 5-inch displays are established as the flagship norm, is it already time to bring out the really big guns? It's in the hands of the consumers now.
SAMSUNG: SEOUL, Korea, April 11, 2013 - Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd, a global leader in digital media and digital convergence technologies, today announced the Samsung GALAXY Mega, a device that combines the portability and convenience of a smartphone with the power, multitasking capabilities and extensive viewing experience of a tablet. The newest addition to the GALAXY family balances an optimal viewing experience on a 6.3-inch HD screen, yet is ultra-thin and portable enough to put into a pocket or hold in one hand. The GALAXY Mega offers a mix of popular smartphone and tablet features such as an effortless user experience, a split screen, multitasking between video and other apps and more...
The Samsung Galaxy Mega smartphone with 5.8-inch display. (Needs something to scale it.)
Back in the year 2000 I saw a really nice, super sharp color mobile display at an industry trade show. However, I didn't see any mainstream phone with a screen like that until around 2005. That's an example of the time gap from component demos to store-shelf ready implementation.
Yes, companies that design components begin hocking their wares years before they will implemented in products. In fact, they start showing off working and non-working prototypes behind the curtains in deep non-disclosure agreement meetings. Ordinary folks like us don't get a peak until development work is nearly complete. And then it still takes years and years for real products to hit the streets. There are few surprises for industry insiders.
Now we're getting to a point where flexibility is getting close. How close? From experience, I would say five years until some mainstream product hits a mall near you. The displays are getting there, the batteries, some of the guts. We could start to see modularity, with wrap-around displays here and there a bit sooner.
There is hope: the most boring market in the world will become more flexible someday. For now, however, the world remains flat.
Another look at Samsung's YOUM flexible display technology happy, pretty people video:
KEY MOBILE TRENDS: logistics, economies of scale, vertical integration
Already back in 2009, Samsung started chatting about becoming the world's largest handset vendor. Given Nokia's dominant position in the market at the time, it was easy to dismiss Samsung's talk as being slightly delusional. I know I did.
Back in 2008 Nokia reached a long-term goal of its own by claiming 40% share of the global handset market. For the full year 2008, Nokia shipped almost 470 million units. It was an amazing number and many within the company liked to talk about the amount of devices shipped per day (almost 1.3 million) and even per second (~15). It really was a logistical achievement.
So now Samsung is talking about shipping 500 million handsets during 2013 which would be a 25% increase from its 2012 volumes. This is in addition to its tablets and Windows & Chrome laptops.
Half a billion units per year would amount to almost 16 units per every second of the year. Most handsets have more than 100 components, some much more. But to be conservative, let's say that each handset is built with 120 components, from box to battery. This would require management of 1,900 components per second. How many companies could manage this?
No other handset vendor that I can think of enjoys the same level of vertical integration that Samsung does. Nonetheless, many components in each handset are sourced. Given its massive volumes, Samsung's leverage with suppliers --including platform vendors-- is reaching omnipotent levels allowing it to push deep and bargain hard. Samsung's influence and economies of scale are reaching levels that few companies in any hard industry have ever enjoyed.
Samsung has established itself as the power player in the handset industry. But as we've learned, power can fade quickly in this business. So, do other vendors have a second chance?
Putting the pieces in place.
Can other vendors chip away at Samsung's powerful logistical advantages?
image via Gadget tweet
KEY MOBILE TRENDS: the mobile home, internet of things, retail
Smartphone vendors, get ready to swing for the fences, because you may need to make a run for home.
It's happening. White goods working together with smart phones. This is what partnerships between Ericsson & Electrolux and Nokia & Whirlpool were supposed to bring about more than 10 years ago. And then fade to black...
...and then slowly back to white, because here we go ago again. Is Samsung the vendor who can really bring it all together now? Washing machines and dryers talking to smartphones? Connected refrigerators which can suggest grocery lists and recipes based on inventory? Samsung dishwashers, televisions, scales, set-top boxes, security cameras, thermostats all working seamlessly together?
The home could be the next ecosystem domain. And now Samsung may be positioning itself to show off its complete solution by opening a series of Samsung experience stores within BestBuy. Stores within stores are nothing new, but Samsung's presence in America's largest electronics retailer could establish a permanent experience exhibit for the vendor, tying it altogether under one roof. (And for BestBuy, this could be a new business model to fight showcasing: become landlords.)
To be clear, Samsung is expected to initially use these in-store experience booths to highlight the Galaxy S 4, but if they are clever, which they sure are, they will be showing off so much more. This could be a great display of solidarity for Samsung and all its units. And a less expensive way to counter Apple's and Microsoft's retail stores.
So, that's the score. LG, Sony, Nokia/Microsoft, others: are you ready to bring it on home?
Attention handset product managers and portfolio planners! Are you looking for the next must-have feature to stuff into your spanking new flagship smartphone? Well then, don't look forward, but rather, take a look back to some golden oldie consumer research from last century.
I remember in the '90s reading surveys of features people most desired in their handsets. Rather consistently --and perhaps somewhat facetiously-- at number one on these lists was not an embedded camera or touch screen supporting advanced browsing features. Nope. What people said they wanted most was an embedded bottle opener. I suppose the best bottle opener in the world is the one you have with you at the moment.
And next up on the list of requested features was an embedded television remote control.
It seemed a bit odd to me to replace a $1 device or a $5 device with a $500 device. Why wear down one of your most important and personal possessions to open a bottle of beer and/or do some channel surfing.
The bottle-opener concept didn't catch on, but now it looks like the smart TV remote control might just trend. I must admit that the use cases here do look compelling (please see the demo video below).
To be compatible with the current installed user base of television sets, this will require infrared. Rather retro indeed. (Some cable operators do offer dedicated smartphone apps which use data via WiFi to control programming and Microsoft's Xbox SmartGlass looks smooth as silk.)
Samsung starting putting the infra TV remote feature into their Galaxy Note phablets and now the feature has been added on their flagship smartphone, the Galaxy S 4. And HTC also added a built-in remote to their recently-released HTC One.
I don't know what an infrared blaster would add to bill of materials of a smartphone. I would think not much. Anyway, this is the type of finesse which makes for a great in-shop demo. Which smartphone vendor will be next? Sony, Nokia, ZTE, others: are you ready to work remotely?
Please remember: three makes trend, so stay tuned.
HTC's One as a infrared-based controller:
Related: Microsoft SmartGlass. Not an infra remote, but a nice control:
For those looking to network with Chinese mobile players and understand the market: the kind producers of the Global Mobile Internet Conference 2013 and the extended "G-Trip" contacted me to share a 25% discount code with any readers who might wish to attend. You can register your attendance at http://beijing.thegmic.com/register/ and paste in the following code into the "discount code" section: GMIC-VQ9596MT
Talking shoes from Google, contextual-sensing jewelry from Samsung. Big brands and small, device vendors had better get to wear the action is.
You will certainly be hearing lots about wearable devices over the coming year, and some of you might get tired of the exaggerated stories and the miserable puns. But when hype reaches its peak is when it's really time to evaluate market potential and write down business-development plans.
I've been hearing about ubiquitous computing since the turn of the century. The long-term vision of migrating machine interaction into everyday things and away from personal computers and handsets has excited technology executives to such a degree, that most large tech companies and campuses formed UC units. Now, the enablers are nearly in place and products will rain onto the market during the coming years. Many products will fail to deliver, but a few will really change the way we live and breath.
Google Glass and Google's talking shoe concept (please see video below) are two examples of keeping people contextually informed and constantly connected to the grid. Every smartphone vendor worth its salt will be sprouting sensor-filled mobile accessories during the coming years.
While we know the components enabling this key trend, as is so often the case, the supporting business models are the real uncertainty. Some legitimate mobile healthcare-related services will prove to be a good value for healthcare providers and individuals, but leveraging the vast amounts of data collected could lead to a trade of atoms for bits, that is, lower-cost accessories in return for some of the contextual data.
I suspect most large handset vendors have their wearable computing in-house experts and major mobile platforms are working on robust APIs to support the development of an array of accessories and applications. Vendors who aren't prepared could be left out in the cold.
So, looking forward, computing power and sensors will be everyware. Are you ready to uncover the opportunities?
Platitude & attitudes: this shoe from Google/Adidas will make life much tougher:
KEY MOBILE TRENDS: mobile health, sensor fusion, sensors, big data, big proactive, wearable computing
Last week I wrote a blog entry about my take on a potential wrist-worn device from Apple (please see "An Apple watch could be a genius big-data play"). It's complete conjecture on my part, but I see that any such device would be just as much about collecting information as providing it.
I have no detailed comments to share on Samsung's Galaxy S4 which was unveiled yesterday. The vendor showed off a series of evolutionary new features which anyone following the latest trends would have expected. A 1080p, 5-inch screen, eye-tracking, wireless charging, NFC... Samsung ticked off all the right boxes for a 2013 flagship device.
But the more interesting development wasn't in the device itself but what was happening around it. Samsung also introduced a series of health-related accessories which will work with the device and its "S health" software. The accessories included a scale, a heart-rate monitor, and an "S band" similar to the Fitbit or Nike's FuelBand. These accessories collect and feed info to the smartphone for further processing and storing. The data allows users to see journals over time.
Vendors of smartphones should be aware that opportunities are growing outside of the box and beyond the screen. Sensor fusion is no illusion.
Nintendo Wii Fit, eat your heart out.
It looks like Samsung got the jump on Apple in sensor fusion:
Images via GSM Arena & CNET:
Video via Laptop Mag: For those looking to network with Chinese mobile players and understand the market: the kind producers of the Global Mobile Internet Conference 2013 and the extended "G-Trip" contacted me to share a 25% discount code with any readers who might wish to attend. You can register your attendance at http://beijing.thegmic.com/register/ and paste in the following code into the "discount code" section: GMIC-VQ9596MTGWIC 2013. Be there. And see see Tiananmen Square.
TRENDS TO NOTE: eye-put, natural-user interfaces, biometrics, non-touch input
Samsung has been doing some great re-purposing of smartphone sensors. For example, Samsung's "SmartStay" feature uses the phone's front-facing camera to determine is a user is actually looking at the screen or not to maximize the use of battery juice.
And now, according to The New York Times, it looks like Samsung will be taking this further with "Eye Scroll:" when the user looks down at the end of a webpage, it will automatically scroll down to more info. It's a small convenience, but it's easy enough to envision a few use cases where this non-touch input could really be practical. And it shows that Samsung is taking marginal steps forward as it grows its lead in the handset market. All innovations great and small count for Samsung.
I've written about a number of "eye-put" developments over the past year. (Please see the eye-put signals on my blog here.) Is this something to look forward to? It could be, so other smartphone players had better see to it.
Related: Tobii's Gaze technology brings a new look to Windows 8:
Black rectangular screen, black rectangular screen, black rectangular screen, black rectangular screen, black rectangular screen, cool foldable big-screen device you can spread out, black rectangular screen, black rectangular screen, black rectangular screen, bla... whao, what was that?
Was that something different in the world's most boring market filled with look-alike products? Could it be? Could things be about to change?
I would have more hope and be less cynical had I not seen similar presentations year after year. But these things do take time. Here's some hope from the display component guys at Samsung. Device makers looking for some WOW, higher margins, and lines out the door: get on your marks, get set, bend.
Fold it away boys:
(WARNING: the second video below is one of those visionary beautiful-people types.)
Samsung introduced a device which is in essence a lower-end Samsung Note. Called the Galaxy Grand, it runs Android on a dual-core 1.2 GHz processor, has 5-inch LCD display, and an 8-megapixel camera.
The trend to note here is the availability of the device in a dual-SIM model.
For those who follow the mobile industry, please don't fall for the "six billion mobile subscribers" stories that have been floating around earlier this year. The proper word should be "subscriptions," not subscribers. Some estimates are that there are actually fewer than three billion global subscribers, and some say as few as two billion. Granted that's still an amazing number.
The math indicates that there are possibly more than one billion people, and likely a great deal more, who have more than one mobile account, and thus at least two SIM cards. This is not niche market.
I am still waiting for Microsoft to announce support for dual-SIM hardware in Windows Phone. Unfortunately I suspect a long delay which will cost them share when and where they need it most.
Yup, get ready to lose feature phone share to dual-SIM smarties.
I've been seeing more and more dual-SIM smartphones hit the market during the past year and they're getting more mainstream.
Here's one from Samsung, the low-end Galaxy Music Duos. It runs Android Ice Cream Sandwich, has a 3-inch QVGA screen, a 3 megapixel camera with no flash, and some additional hardware to live up to its "music" name tag such as stereo speakers.
All-in-all, not an impressive piece of hardware. But the price can be expected to match the low-end specs (I didn't find any pricing details).
Over the past year, we've seen dual-SIM smartphones from most mainstream vendors including from Acer (Liquid Gallant Duo), Alcatel (Blaze Duo), Gigabyte (GSmart G1355), HTC (the Desire V), LG (Optimus L3), Motorola (XT390), Samsung (Galaxy S Duos, Galaxy Y Pro DUOS, Galaxy Y DUOS, GALAXY Ace DUOS, Galaxy Music Duos), Sony (Xperia tipo dual), and ViewSonic (ViewPhone 3). And local vendors such as India's Micromax are always among the first to introduce such dual-SIM products given their understanding of local demand.
For vendors looking for volume in markets such as India, Russia, Italy, Portugal and Greece, check your portfolios for dual-SIM smartphones. If you've got a gap, get going.
Galaxy Music Duos, low-end Android-based smartphone with two SIM slots:
In a world that has brought us “stagflagation,” “brunch” and “Brangelina,” comes the latest portmanteau. It’s the “phablet.” It’s too big to be a phone, too small to be a tablet. And now we have to wonder if phablets are a real phabnomenon?
Suddenly I've been coming across the hybrid word “phablet” very often. I suppose it’s an obvious combo addition to the lexicon. But what the heck is a phablet? One definition I’ve found is it’s a touch device with a screen size between 4.6 and 5.5 inches. Any smaller, it’s a phone. Any larger, it’s a tablet.
Samsung’s Galaxy Note is the device that probably started the species. The Note has a 5.3-inch touch display and even comes with a stylus (so it’s a “stouch” device... or a “stablet”). And Samsung’s new Galaxy SIII could very well become the best-selling phablet in history. With a 4.8-inch display, please don’t confuse it with being a smartphone.
Other vendors such as HTC, LG, and Huawei either have or will soon be shipping phablets as well.
Is it time for all device vendors to get their phabet acts together? Phobviously it is, so make a note of it and don’t phall behind.
As often is the case, it’s not who does it first, but who does it loudest.
A story originating out of Korea has it that Samsung’s next iteration of their successful Galaxy super phone line will feature some form of wireless charging. Sure, wireless charging has been done before, even in smartphones. Just see the last HP WebOS device with its “Touchstone” charging system.
More than 100 years ago, Nikola Tesla demonstrated real wireless electricity. And practically every electric toothbrush on the market over the past 20 years have featured some form of inductive coupling. And now the same convenience will soon become mainstream in the handset market.
Nope, wireless charging is not breaking news. The Wireless Power Consortium was formed more than five years ago to address the specs that could boost the market for such a feature, and their Qi standard was first published in 2009. And other organizations and companies have been proposing their own solutions along the way.
So get ready for great claims and power games. There’s always some smoke and mirrors when it comes to rolling out such new old technology. In reality, it’s done with wires.
Samsung introduced the projector-enabled "Galaxy Beam" at Mobile World Congress 2012. Should other smartphone vendors start working on a similar project?
I've had the opportunity to test several pico-projectors over the years including some projector handsets. So far, the real-world image quality and true usefulness of such devices has been limited, as have the number of SKUs and sales. A number of smaller Chinese handset vendors have introduced projector handsets during the past four years or so. And then, three years ago at CES 2009, Samsung became the first major handset vendor to introduce a projector phone. The announcement certainly got attention, but little real market interest.
Relevant component vendors such as TI and Microvision have been knocking on doors with their wares for years. But given battery-life and bill-of-material issues along with what appears to be limited consumer attention, most handset vendors appear to be taking a rather dim view about the short-term potential of projector phones.
But now as smartphone vendors are desperately seeking a WOW factor in this age of look-alike products, is it time for the projector phone market to shine?
Samsung's Galaxy Note suffers from an identity crisis. Is it a big smartphone? YES! Is it a small tablet? YES! I suppose in the end, it depends on the size of the user's hands.
With a 5.3-inch Super Amoled HD display, the Note is a big device compared to the average, everyday smartphone. The iPhone 4S, for example, has a 3.5-inch display. Otherwise, Note has the type of hardware specs one would expect of a high-end Android-based smartphone these days: 8 megapix camera with 1080 HD video support, 3G+ (no LTE in this version), and memory expansion.
But it's the inclusion of a stylus with the device that I would like to touch upon here. Samsung calls the included stylus the "S Pen." It should be noted that HTC recently introduced a tablet, the HTC Flyer, that also shipped with a stylus.
For Note, Samsung has optimized the Ice Cream Sandwich Android build to support S Pen input and included a number of exclusive S Pen apps.
Stylus input is of course nothing new. Palm popularized pen input back in the mid-1990s with their "Graffiti" language on the Palm Pilot. But as capacitive touchscreen became the industry standard support finger-put, the stylus got lost.
Will it soon be time again to stick with the stylus? Let's remember the guideline: three makes a trend.
Recommendation to device vendors: Follow consumer acceptance of stylus in top of smart devices. Track especially how the Nintendo DS generation reacts to this potential trend. Platform vendors could need to adjust deep OS support for more input methods than finger touch.
So, it does seem that any fashionable camera worth its salt will soon be wearing wireless. WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS, LTE, maybe NFC soon.
Samsung announced a family of cameras at CES 2012 that have WiFi connectivity, including a WiFi-enabled camcorder. While WiFi connectivity in cameras isn't unprecedented, it does appear that it's developing into a standard feature for 2012.
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