The awe of large numbers. Optimistic forecasters live larger than life.

In one forecasting project I worked on many years ago for a senior VP presentation, the executive was concerned my numbers were way too low and just didn't look interesting. I was asked to bump them up. Somehow.

I understand. People do love big numbers and fat CAGRs. Bar charts that look like mountains growing to the heavens. Line graphs with arrows at positive 45° angles. Up is always better than down. Steep is better than flat. The bigger the figures the better the funding.

I was recently churning some numbers with my colleague, creating forecasts for several market research studies we will be publishing at Research Capsule. Growth rates were coming in at nice, respectable levels. 17%, 25%, 40%. But then we compared these to some other market projections. 100%, 150, 200. Such numbers do make great headlines. But could lead to some bad business decisions.

Are optimistic forecasters more likely to be invited to the party? Yes they are. Executives will pay a premium for what are likely exaggerations. I've come across my share of embellished projections. I now see that "trillion" has become the new billion when it comes to dollar figures. There will be many "next trillion dollar industries."

Everybody likes an optimist. This is the flaw of large numbers.


When it comes to market forecasting, it usually pays to be full of it:

Big proactive in Japan. Personal agents keep you on your toes. DoCoMo video.

KEY MOBILE TRENDS: big proactive, personal agents, proactive, ODLs, lifelogging, wearables, voice input.
EVENT HORIZON: two years.

Proactive is where it's at. Stay one step ahead.

Insults are the sincerest form of flattery. And one of the surest indications of success. Why execs should shut up.

Mobile executives can say the meanest things about their competitors' products. But for those product managers on the receiving end of such pejoratives, I have good news for you: there tends to be a near 100% negative correlation to negative comments.

Yes, you know that you really hit a nerve when some top-level manager at a competing company dismisses your product as a nonstarter. And one of the absolute greatest leading indicators of success is when an executive mentions your impending failure during a quarterly results call. You should be so lucky to get that. (My advice is to humble it out on both ends.)

Here is a limited selection of some entertaining opinions, past and present. There are more, but let's start with the obvious. I'll call this list the top-ten failed failure forecasts. (Give it time.)

- Microsoft's Steve Ballmer, 2007: The iPhone has “no chance” of gaining significant market share.

- Microsoft's Steve Ballmer, 2011: You need to be a “computer scientist” to use an Android smartphone. (Android now has around 70% platform share, Windows Phone 3%.)

- Nokia CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, 2008: Apple's iPhone is a “niche” product.

- Nokia Executive Vice President Anssi Vanjoki, 2009: The iPhone has a “toy camera.”

- Apple's Tim Cook, Jan 2011: “We're not that worried about” Android tablets. (Apple had around 80% market share of tablets at the time.)

- Apple's Tim Cook: We're not worried about Amazon's Kindle.

- Apple's Phil Schiller, March 2013: “...Samsung Galaxy S4 is being rumored to ship with an OS that is nearly a year old. Customers will have to wait to get an update.” Android is fragmented, unsafe, et cetera, et cetera.

- HTC Chief Marketing Officer, Benjamin Ho, March 2013: Samsung's Galaxy S 4 “is more of the same.” (Early indicators show that S 4 sales are much stronger than the S III, which in itself was one of the best-selling smartphones ever.)

- BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins, March 2013: Apple's iPhone/iOS is “five years out of date.”

- And finally, here is some good news for Google's Chrome OS, criticism from Ballmer:
So, how silly will Mr. Ballmer's opinion look in five years from now?

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Samsung Galaxy S 5+ conjecture. What features might the next few generations of flagship smartphones have? Progress has been very linear.

One, two, four, more. Can I have another core? Yes, faster, thinner, brighter, lighter: the smartphone's evolution has been straight as an arrow. But has all the low-lying fruit been picked when it comes to smartphone hardware?

So, what is arguably the smartphone industry's newest flagship product has been announced, the Samsung Galaxy S 4. Now it's time to wonder what's next. What hardware features might the Samsung Galaxy S 5 have? And how about its 2014 contemporaries? Bendable or transparent 3D displays? Floating holograms? Fingerprint readers or brain readers? Dual screen? Powerful built-in projectors? Infi-pixel cameras? Software-defined radio. Nanotech-enabled batteries. Massively multi-core processing...

Given the fact that hardware features tend to expand in a rather predictable fashion, there are rarely any surprises. However, there are opportunities for smartphone vendors to stand out in the crowd for a short time at least. Taking a look at some component and product announcements over the past few years points to some of these possibilities. Here are some things smartphone vendors might be working on implementing behind the curtains:

— Cameras and lenses: Whatever happened to optical zoom in handsets? Nokia and Samsung introduced phones last decade with optical zoom. Then fade to black. But get ready for a zoom comeback: Huawei, LG, and others, are expected to get back into the fold. Perhaps we'll see folded optics lenses in smartphones in the next generation of flagships for lots of great video clips of Rover and the kids.

— Storage: room to grow. I've been hearing about the terabyte phone for more than five years. Yes, a terabyte or more of on-board storage memory. The platforms have to support it, but it's coming. Why? For content creation and consumption, there will be a reason, for example, to store lots of great video clips of Rover and the kids

— Haptics: I've never felt the need for tactile feedback, but that's me. I've learned to never judge the market based on "I." There are some interesting improved haptic APIs coming for more realistic gaming and new types of interfaces and communications. Reach out and touch someone, for real.

— Biometrics: Only a few smartphones have fingerprint readers. A few feature facial recognition. More biometric-based recognition is coming using fingers and eyes, voice and looks.

— Resolutions: 1080p is it for the time being. A move to ultra high definition would make little sense in a pocketable device. The law of diminishing returns has been reached.

— Screens sizes: a matter of consumer taste. Screens might grow a fraction of an inch, but soon after that they enter the tablet market. Then again, it could be that the tablet becomes the new smartphone.

— Tougher phones: Gorilla Glass aside, handsets are still too fragile. Drop your keys, you simply pick them up. Drop your phone, you scoop up the pieces and hope it powers up again. Nonetheless, expect smartphones to become only marginally tougher with such improvements as water-resistant coatings. Handset makers are likely looking at impressive new materials such as graphene, but wide implementation is still some years off. Anyway, it seems that consumers in developed markets never paid too much attention to toughness given the fact that purchase upgrade cycles are around two years and significantly less in some countries. A cracked phone only accelerates the inevitable. And third-party accessories have been covering this area quite well.

— Connectivity: 5G is still a long, long way off. The 2G/3G/4G/WiFi world phone will be the standard at the high-end with LTE at around 100mps. Network providers will continue to work on the other side of the equation with WiFi becoming a more important operator element.

— Battery: There are battery breakthroughs coming according to scientific papers, but for now, it looks like lithium-ion will continue to be the norm. You can read up on some interesting demos using, for example, nanotech-based materials for batteries.

— Processors: Quad core and more. Samsung's clever 4x4 technology could set the standard for power-efficient smartphones, coaxing more use out of the given juice. More powerful mobile graphics processors will give living-room game consoles a run for their money.

— Speakers: There are some interesting surround-sound Bluetooth speaker accessories around. More of this technology will find its way into smartphones.

— Form factors: The world will remain flat. Unfortunately there's little chance of bendable, foldable, stretchable, transparent devices coming to market anytime soon. The component videos we've seen of flexible displays are neat, but until everything else in the device can flex as well, this song remains the same.

— User interfaces: Non-touch input features are making for more natural user interfaces. PrimeSense, the company behind the Kinect, recently introduced their technology for mobile devices to support 3D gesture input. Leap Motion and competitors could make 3D gesture input a norm. In addition, sensors will continue to be used in clever and contextual ways. Get ready for more non-touch.

— The software & services experience: Expect more of following: HTML5, WebRTC, smoother cloud storage, sensor friendly apps, really useful NFC-based services, home integration, laptop replacement

— Modular: The number of sensor-filled accessories will expand enabling a customized experience for the user. This could be the killer trend over the coming two years.

— Price: Flagship devices are expensive, but in a historical context, are absolute bargains. Top phones will continue to retail in the $700 range (unsubsidized), making a difficult entry point for many consumers around the world. Yet the good news is, the trickle-down effect will put the power of what would once have been considered a supercomputer into the hands of millions of first time smartphone owners, connecting them to the internet and opportunity.


The bottom line is, the arrow still points up. There's still a lot to think forward to.

Samsung Galaxy flagship screen sizes from March 2010 to March 2013.
Marching uphill in a straight line makes predictions rather easy:

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For those looking to network with Chinese mobile players and understand the market: the kind producers of the Global Mobile Internet Conference 2013 and the extended "G-Trip" contacted me to share a 25% discount code with any readers who might wish to attend. You can register your attendance at http://beijing.thegmic.com/register/ and paste in the following code into the "discount code" section: GMIC-VQ9596MT

GWIC 2013. Be there. And see see Tiananmen Square.

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20-20 vision. 20 years back. 20 years forward. AT&T's amazingly accurate foresighting videos from '93.

Have you ever seen these visionary AT&T videos from 1993? No. Take a look at this page and you will.

In reality, the AT&T that brought us these commercials back in 1993 no longer exists. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't be impressed with their foresighting. In fact, the only thing they got wrong was the company that brought us these technologies.

Yup, it's been 20 years since these commercials ran in the U.S. It was an interesting and accurate brand-building campaign by AT&T at a time when the concept of competition was just being introduced in the American telecoms market.

On-demand movies? Check. Books online? Check. Video chat? Check. GPS directions? Check. EZ toll payment? Check. Biometric locks? Check. Distance live video courses? Check. Sending a fax from the beach using a touch-based tablet? Well, I suppose that's a check as well. Yes, AT&T has an impressive checkered past when it comes to envisioning the future.

So, how did they do it? How did AT&T's technology foresighting team get everything so right? It's so impressive that it's almost spooky science at a distance. But this stuff doesn't develop in a vacuum. AT&T did their foresighting homework. They knew about technologies in the labs, both their own R&D labs as well as labs all around the world. The internet, GPS, touch-screens, mobile computing, digital content. The enablers were there as an embryonic technical stew.

So, what basic ingredients are simmering now which might enable some amazing "you wills" in 20 years from now? If you had to make a similar set of visionary commercials today to show the world in 2033, what basic technologies would you include. Here's a list that comes to my mind right now:

1] You will be enjoying the internet of things.
2] Move over smartphones and get ready for smart homes.
3] Your devices will be touched by nanotechnology in several ways.
4] Home robotics will move beyond vacuum cleaners and lawnmowers.
5] Wearable computing will be the norm.
6] Sensors of all kinds become will keep you very well informed about your body and your direct environment.
7] User interfaces will become very natural thanks to biometrics, BCI, and contextual information.
8] Cash is a thing of the past. And Americans won't be using checks any longer either. Or pennies.
9] Big proactive data will be used for good instead of evil to gather healthcare info.
10] And the semantic web is a reality.

OH] You won't be using a quantum computer, yet. But it will be a hot research topic.

And the company that will bring it to you? Well, if I knew that, I'd be doing something else right now.

AT&T's impressive visionary television commercials ca. 1993.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZb0avfQme8

iTube: mobile food allergen detector. I heart the potential of sensors + big data + clever algorithms.

GIZMAG STORY >>

Facebook tells us about old friends we may want to get back in touch with. LinkedIn tells us about jobs we may be interested in. Amazon tells us about books we may like. YouTube tells us about videos we may be interested in seeing. The supermarket even prints out customized coupons for ice cream I might be interested in trying. All this without asking.

For the most part, I find that such proactive marketing is rather helpful and amazingly accurate. But this shouldn't be surprising: there is a lot of big data and clever algorithms behind each notification.

And the potential for combining big data with proactive notification is just beginning. Let's call what we'll be seeing in the near future "big proactive." There will be more proactivity concerning individual healthcare and well-being as a history of data compiled from sensors overtime will calculate risks of disease. Sensors know the when, the what, the where, the weather. And going forward they will sniff out problems with our bodies and the air around us. Sensors will even be checking our food.

Here's an interesting project done at the University of California, Los Angeles called "iTube" which uses sensors to turn a smartphone into an allergen detector. By detecting food allergens such as gluten, peanuts and eggs, the smartphone can act to warn users of potential food risks.

I'm positive that sensors and big data will be big moving forward.

For Nokia, the gloves come off. But now they don't have to. How does egocentrism affect product plans?

When the first iPhone was unveiled back in January 2007, I was working for Nokia out of "Nokia House," the company's beautiful bay-side crystal headquarters located in Espoo, Finland. A few days after Apple's announcement, I happened to have lunch with one particularly sharp Nokia vice president. Just like most water-cooler talk in the building that week, the iPhone became the topic of our lunch-time conversation. While I (like most of the other grunts in the building at the time) insisted the product would be a game changer for the smartphone business, that particular Nokia VP was rather dismissive of Apple's entry into the segment. His key argument against the iPhone's potential market success was the all-touch form factor. After all, he said, the device couldn't even be used with gloves on.

Wouldn't work with gloves on! I thought that was unique rationalization, but I then began to hear the same argument from some other top Nokia executives. While this might sound like bizarre thinking, you have to realize that these executives come from the land of the frost, not too far from the North Pole. Winters often start in October and can end in April. If you live in an environment where you might need to wear gloves outdoors half the year, it's not strange to want a smartphone you could answer without stripping down a bit.

So, yesterday Nokia (CNET story) unveiled two new smartphones, the Lumia 920 and the Lumia 820, which could indeed be used with gloves on. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time a mainstream smartphone vendor touted gloves-on usage as a feature. I doubt any California-based handset company would ever have thought to make this a key-selling point.

After working in foresighting for many years and seeing many good products and features get canceled for strange or no reasons, I have often wondered how much egocentrism can contaminate product and feature planning. Egocentrism is the very natural result of projecting one's own experiences and environment to a general level. It's gut instinct gone very wrong, and as we see in industry over and over again, egocentrism can lead to some extremely painful and expensive lessons.

I've said many times that there is no such thing as a technology disruption, that is, rarely does a new technology come along and change the playing field in a very short amount of time. For the most part, competitors who do their foresighting homework have access to the same information and the same or very similar technology developments as the so-called disruptor companies. No, there are no technology disruptions, only bad judgement calls and strange decision making.

It's good to learn from your own mistakes. It's even better to learn from the mistakes of others. Welcome common sense in your decision making, but beware the potential deceptions of egocentrism.

Don't let your company get left out in the cold.

Does your view of the world fit across the globe?

2012 in preview. Some predictions for 2012 and beyond: Identity Crisis, Going Soft, Microsoft Kinects, and more...

Since it’s the season for predictions, I’ll throw my hat into the ring. Below are some are some predictions I have for 2012 and a bit beyond. I’ve been wrong about many of these in the past, so read at your own risk.

In general, I would say that making predictions, especially about the future, is quite easy... as long as you provide yourself with a little bit of wiggle room, like 10 to 20 years. But if I have to choose some market developments for 2012, here are a few that come to mind:


1. Identity Crisis: The beginning of the end for the phone number.
Summary: The phone number as an identifier will begin its decline during 2012 and will be all but gone within ten years.

I’ve embarrassed myself many times during the past seven years with this “death of the phone number” prediction. But to me, phone numbers are like IP addresses: a terrible form of identity given out rather randomly, tied to a particular location, and usually difficult to remember.

This is an issue of network identity. We’re at a point now where we can move beyond the phone number, using such ID methods as OpenID, Google Talk, FaceTime, Skype names, and Facebook. The incumbents won’t make this easy, and there is very heavy legacy think holding us back. Nonetheless, I think we’re about to reach escape velocity and leave the phone number behind.

I’m not sure how to grade this prediction next January, but I think we’ll know it when we get there.


2. Microsoft’s Power Point: Windows Phone will take 5% market share of the smartphone biz Q4 2012: no more, no less.
Summary: Windows Phone v*.* will catch on slowly during 2012 as a smartphone platform and begin to soak up some Symbian share as well as some enterprise business. It’s quarterly share during Q4 2012 will reach 5%.

A lousy five percent? This might not sound like a risky stab at where Windows Phone will be in a year, but this would be close to a ten-fold increase to what Microsoft had last quarter and thus would be a significantly better trajectory than what Android had during 2009. Please note that I’m not talking about some Windows Mobile + Windows Phone market share combo. That’s just Windows Phone software running on handsets. Furthermore, I predict that Microsoft might actually release some real clear sales figures for Windows Phone devices at some point during 2012.


3. Newton’s law: Apple’s smartphone and tablet market share will decline during 2012. Apple suffers from software quality issues.
Summary: Apple’s smartphone market share will be diluted during 2012 and fall below the teens by Q4 2012. Apple’s global tablet share to fall to around 40% from their current ~70% level.

An immovable object? Either Apple’s smartphone margins and ASP of $630 goes down down, or their market share does. Apple’s smartphone share during Q3 2011 (around 14.5%) was actually back to 2009 levels, and about four points below levels from early 2011. While iPhone sales during Q4 2011 may have reached record levels and Apple may have taken around 18% of the smartphone market, that is where it peaks. iOS share will take 12% of the smartphone market by Q4 2012 and thus be back to levels not seen since early 2009.

In tablets, Apple, for the most part, has had the only competitive product on the market to date. But as prices get cut and competition increases, Apple will under grow the tablet market which they defined. Their global share during Q4 2012 will be cut in half from its peak, and will be around 40%.


4. Jungle Land: Amazon enters the smartphone biz, marginalizes Netflix with a strong video streaming offering, and becomes an MVNO, and possibly buys T-Mobile USA. Meanwhile, talk of Amazon monopoly heats up.
Summary: Amazon’s will branch out using their fantastic position as one of the world’s largest retailers and the world’s largest mall as they provide more consumer services.

The Kindle was just the start. Amazon will move beyond tablets and introduce a smartphone sometime during 2012 tied closely to their own content and other cloud-based services. Furthermore, Amazon will introduce their own labeled voice and data services during 2012 possibly by purchasing or investing in T-Mobile or leasing time with LightSquared. While it can be argued that Amazon is already an MVNO with the Kindle, they will become a full-fledged MVNO during 2012.

However, Amazon’s aggressive expansion into new areas will cause additional friction and spark significant new lobbying efforts against it.


5. That’s the ticket: Mobile wallet makes a big break through during 2012, but based more on barcodes, screens & cameras than NFC.
Summary: This time it’s for real: the mobile wallet really is right around the corner. Credit cards, loyalty cards, keys, tickets: they’ll all be in our phones.

Tickets, coupons, cards, and cash. 2012 will be a big year for the mobile wallet in many ways as consumers make the screen mainstream. Retailers will be forced to adapt to new shopping behaviors using a combination of technologies. Barcodes and screen readers will enable the current installed user base given the lack of NFC-enabled handsets. Mainstream NFC use is still two to three years off.


6. Microsoft Kinects: MS comes to the realization that they have the only WOW product currently on the market.
Summary: Microsoft pushes the Kinect and its technologies to new places in new ways and re-defines usability and input.

I’ve been saying for a while that the smartphone business has become rather boring. A market full of lookalike black rectangular screens and everyone playing a game of follow the leader, there has been little real innovation over the past few years. The PC market is pretty much the same. I would say the one product that has the potential to add some WOW to the mix is the Kinect. If Microsoft can port that smoothness to other platforms, they could add a dash of much needed WOW to other Microsoft-based products.


7. Last shot: Camera makers attempt to compete with smartphones with more sensors and more software and more services.
Summary: Digital cameras will begin to get competitive using established technologies such as Bluetooth, GPS, Wi-Fi, Wi-Fi Direct, Wi-Fi positioning, cloud storage & backup services, facial recognition, more touch input, and on-device apps.

I’m surprised how little the camera makers have done to add well-established technologies to their devices. I get the idea of doing one thing very well, but the smartphone market is taking away their business and Camera makers have no choice but to compete by adding more sensors and better basic processing features. I suspect that Samsung and Sony will lead the way, given their expertise from the smartphone business. The cost adding most sensors is marginal to BoM at this point. So shoot.


8. Downhill fast: LightSquared hype gets popped, unfortunately.
Summary: Things aren’t looking so bright for this LTE MVNO enabler.

I never believed much in Clearwire, but I was hoping that LightSquared would enable a new generation of wireless competition in the U.S. market from cable operators and retailers such as BestBuy, among others. Given interference issues and rapid LTE deployments, LightSquared will hit significant speed bumps during 2012 and possibly sell off frequency.


9. Going soft: software-defined radio finally has its coming out party.
Summary: SDR is nothing new, but the enabling technologies are coming around and some real commercial implementations will take place during 2012.

Software-defined radio is a glacial trend: it’s coming this way so slowly you can barely see it move. But when it hits, it will hit hard and leave its mark. I’ve been hearing talk for about a decade on how SDR will change the wireless market. Currently there are some military implementations, but device vendors of all sorts are planning commercial implementations. 2012 should be a breakthrough year for SDR.


10. Road trip: The car becomes the next battleground for usability and services. Automakers offer a screen.
Summary: Auto makers introduce better smartphone connectivity mainly using the MirrorLink standard and charging options as the handset becomes the heart of telematics and in-car entertainment.

MirrorLink will kick in during 2012 allowing easy connections from smartphone to car. (The "MirrorLink" brand replaces the bizarre "Terminal Mode" label.) Auto manufacturers will begin offering more screens to accommodate car connectivity and begin to implement standard APIs for in-car services and apps.


Other predictions for 2012: Facebook reaches one billion users but user security concerns get serious; indoor location is all over the map; Europe tries in vain to regain some of its past mobile glory; more than half a billion smartphones are sold globally during 2012; the smartphone market becomes painfully commoditized; the mobile infrastructure market gets shaken as Asian vendors challenge Ericsson for top spot; wireless operators become credit card companies; Intel has limited impact on the handset business -- again; Eastman Kodak disappears and gets picked to the bone for IPR; Shake-up at Microsoft as Steve Ballmer takes a new role; iOS replaces Mac OS on some laptops.

The writing is on the wall: the end of printed newspapers is nigh. But how nigh? New study says five years.

USC Center for the Digital Future STUDY >>

via Guardian STORY >>


Back in late 2010, the chairman and publisher of The New York Times, Arthur Sulzberger, Jr., said that the writing was on the wall: printed newspapers won't be around much longer. “We will stop printing The New York Times sometime in the future, date TBD,” said Mr. Sulzberger.

So, what's the TBD part? According to a study done by the University of Southern California, TBD = 5. In five years, it is claimed, most printed newspapers in the U.S. will be gone, replaced by tablets and smartphones and laptops and internet-connected big-screen TVs.

If not in five years, certainly within 10. And then we will explain to our children and grandchildren how the newspaper used to be delivered at our doorsteps just like our parents and grandparents told us how the milkman came each day to drop off a bottle or two.

Will print be missed? As the telephone became ubiquitous, there was grumblings of how that device would take away the charm of the personal messenger. And now this message is clear: it's time to move on. It's written in black and white.


Jeffrey I. Cole, director of USC's Center for the Digital Future: “Circulation of print newspapers continues to plummet, and we believe that the only print newspapers that will survive will be at the extremes of the medium – the largest and the smallest,” said Cole. It’s likely that only four major daily newspapers will continue in print form: The New York Times, USA Today, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. At the other extreme, local weekly newspapers may still survive.”

Tablets are on a roll. Is it soon the end of newsprint?

IBM's five predictions for 2016. Actually, yes, yes, yes, maybe and yes.

via GIGAOM >>

IBM has an annual tradition of making five-year predictions trying to forecast what new technologies will move the needle over the coming five years.

Below I list the five trends and give my take. In general, I would say these are interesting but nothing ground breaking. Even a bit wimpy considering these things have been happening during the past five years. But still a fun read from IBM.

1) IBM: People power will come to life. (The use of kinetic energy to power devices)

my take: I've seen several kinetic-energy harvesting solutions pop on the market here and there over the past few years. Nokia, for example introduced a bike-charging solution early 2011. Of course there are environmental advantages to such solutions, but we should also think about the 1.5 billion people who don't have immediate access to power.

Nokia's bike charger introduced earlier this year.


2) IBM: Biometrics will replace passwords.

my take: I suppose we can forget about the demo effect during Google's official introduction of facial recognition in Ice Cream Sandwich. In general, I'd say this has been happening for years now in laptops. So sure, I'd say the technology will be well in place for wide biometric use within five years. But like with all trends, it comes down to user acceptance.

Smile for an Ice Cream Sandwich.


3) IBM: Mind reading is no longer science fiction.

my take: Don't think thought-controlled input is real? Think again. There are already products on the market now from companies such as Emotiv. I've tried this a few times in a simple game in which the player has to move objects via thought. It takes some getting used to. So IBM already has had this one right for a few years now. Good thinking.



4) IBM: The digital divide will cease to exist.

my take: We're seeing the cost of computing come down and the goal of real solid sub-$100 laptops and tablets is getting close. And pretty good smartphones (unsubsidized) have already reached that price point. The problems of connectivity and power still has some ways to go in being solved. Five years? IF IBM means everyone on the planet will be well-connected, that's optimistic.

5) Junk mail will become priority mail.

my take: A strange forecast among the others. As I understand it, IBM points to super-smart filtering and powerful data-mining to bring you only the information you really want. IBM is taking a wide definition of spam here, with even subscribed streams considered unwanted if they don't interest you. We've heard similar predictions in the past from the likes of Microsoft. Meanwhile spam has been a game of whack the mole. But the tide is turning.