A year ago, the struggle wasn't for 100% of the market, but for the 25% that Android and Apple didn't already control. And given Android's growth momentum and lower price points, Microsoft's addressable market was actually quite small.
I suspect those individuals who thought my five point assessment was unrealistically low are very aware of the current market numbers. Analysts estimate that Windows Phone took about 3% share during Q4 2012. Some estimates were lower. I was about half right, which, academically at least, is very wrong.
Nonetheless, I continue to maintain that Microsoft will push and push until Windows Phone is indeed established as that third platform. If things do work out, Microsoft could surpass 7 or 8% within two years and approach 10% soon after that. That's the type of a share a third-ranked player in a duopoly-type market is usually lucky to get.
Windows Phone was released in October 2010. It was and still is a solid, competitive smartphone platform. And that's what should be most concerning to Microsoft and Windows Phone vendors: it's good and still nobody cares. What more can one do? There's a three-letter answer to that question: it's time to find the WOW.
After Eights: iOS vs Android vs Windows Phone after their first 8 full quarters of sales:
Is 3% a magic number for Microsoft?
For those looking to network with Chinese mobile players and understand the market: the kind producers of the Global Mobile Internet Conference 2013 and the extended "G-Trip" contacted me to share a 25% discount code with any readers who might wish to attend. You can register your attendance at http://beijing.thegmic.com/register/ and paste in the following code into the "discount code" section: GMIC-VQ9596MT
GWIC 2013. Be there. And see see Tiananmen Square.